Brazilian agribusiness has the potential to grow significantly in the coming decade, according to forecasts from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply. (Click here for the report containing the full set of forecasts, in Portuguese.)

The country will not only meet rising domestic demand but is set to boost its exports as more densely populated countries run short of spare farmable land.

The products with the biggest predicted increases in production are soy, chicken meat, sugar, ethanol, cotton, soy oil and cellulose. Total grain production (soy, maze, wheat, rice and beans) is expected to increase by 36.7% between 2008/09 and 2019/20, from 129.8 to 177.5 million tonnes, while meat (chicken, beef and pork) production is expected to increase by 37.8%. Production of sugar, ethanol and milk is forecast to rise by 15.2m tonnes, 35.2bn litres and 7.4bn litres respectively.

The overall increase in production is expected to be achieved more through higher productivity than by expanding the total area of farmland. Crop production as a whole is forecast to expand by an average of 2.67% per year between 2010 and 2020, but the total area of land used will grow only by 0.45% per year.

The total area planted with crops is predicted to increase from 60 million hectares in 2010 to 69.7 million in 2020, which will be accounted for mostly by the predicted expansion of soy (4.7m ha) and sugarcane (4.3m ha). The total area of maize is also set to expand, but various crops will maintain their present areas virtually without change, and the areas occupied by some others – including coffee, rice and oranges – will actually decrease.

Although Brazil is set for a significant increase in its agricultural exports, much of the increased production between 2008/09 and 2019/20 will be destined for the domestic market. In 2020, 80% of the annual maize harvest will be consumed in Brazil, as will most of the country’s soy (52%), pork (80%), beef (77%) and chicken (65%).

Brazil is also predicted to maintain or increase its share of various agricultural export markets, with particularly significant increases in its share of global soy, meat (chicken, beef and pork) and maize exports.

Click here for the following data regarding Brazil's main agricultural products, 2008/09 – 2019/20: (1) Forecasted increases in production, (2) Forecasted increases in exports, and (3) Forecasted share of global exports.

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply and Embassy of Brazil in London