Looking to the future
12 October 2012
Foreign minister Antonio Patriota recently gave an interview to the Brazilian current affairs magazine CartaCapital, published on 3 October. Mr Patriota was asked to predict what changes will take place between now and 2030 with regard to Brazil’s economic development, its role in international affairs, and how it is perceived by the rest of the world. Here are some excerpts from the interview:
CartaCapital: To what extent can we predict what Brazil will be like in 2030? Does the current situation allow us to foresee some of the characteristics of the nation 18 years from now?
Antonio Patriota: I remember the words of President Dilma Rousseff in a speech she made in April this year at the graduation ceremony for the latest group of young diplomats. She said, “The position a country occupies in the world is linked, first and foremost, to the role it plays in relation to its own people.” I think that in this respect Brazil is becoming ever more capable. It is systematically implementing the required policies – whether those aimed at economic growth or those that have allowed millions of Brazilians to achieve a more dignified standard of living. It is these internal measures that will allow us to act in the international arena and pursue our aims, which are sustainable development, cooperation and peace. Brazil’s in an extraordinarily good position with regard to some key factors: territory, population, natural resources, food production, access to energy, biodiversity. Predicting what Brazil will be like in 2030 is a speculative exercise. We can, however, make use of papers written by academic institutions and private consultancies and try to visualise the general contours of the scenario that awaits us 18 years from now.
CC: Will we be among the four or five biggest economies?
AP: The next two decades will consolidate the change taking place around the world – particularly the redistribution of economic wealth, with the possibility of substantial improvements in the living standards of large segments of the world population. By 2030 China and India might account for 40% of global GDP, and the BRICS should also see a significant increase in their share of global income. The Economist Intelligence Unit predicts that by 2030 Brazil’s GDP will have reached 7.34 trillion dollars, which would make it the fourth biggest economy behind China, the US and India, in that order, and ahead of Japan, Germany, Russia, France and the UK.
According to the International Energy Agency, thanks to the discovery of the pre-salt oil reserves Brazil will become the sixth biggest [oil] producer by 2030, with 3.4 million barrels a day, behind Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Iran and Canada. According to the agency, between now and 2030 Brazil’s oil production is expected to increase by 2.9% a year – more quickly than that of any other country apart from Iraq and Canada. But, however good the scenario, it’s essential that we continue to invest in human capital, in science, technology and innovation and infrastructure. For example, if the GDP growth forecast is to be proved right, Brazil needs to grow at an average rate of 3.9% per year between 2011 and 2030, which means there’ll have to be a bigger portion of investment – public and private, domestic and foreign – in the composition of our GDP.
CC: Do you think we will have a seat on the UN Security Council? Should Brazil really be a country with greater international responsibilities?
AP: We’re working on it. There’s a democratic deficit in the composition of the UN Security Council, which has had the same five permanent members since the Second World War. The world has evolved and it’s unacceptable to have this anachronistic situation in which whole regions of the world are left out of the part of the system where the decisions are made. Latin America and Africa in particular, along with other centres of influence, should therefore be represented permanently. That’s the goal of the G4, which consists of Brazil, India, Germany and Japan, on the understanding that Africa must also be represented permanently in an extended Security Council. The last few years have shown that there’s no substitute for the multilateral system and it’s essential to update it. The reform of the Security Council is one of the major tasks we hope to see carried out as quickly as possible. A permanent seat for Brazil in a reformed Council would be a natural consequence of a composition that mirrors the new geography of power in the world. More than a mere aspiration, Brazil's participation would be a welcome responsibility. Actually, we’ve been taking on increased responsibilities, as shown by our performance at the head of the Stabilization Mission in Haiti, our growing role as a source of humanitarian aid – among developing countries we’re the biggest contributor to the World Food Programme. We are, visibly, a force for peace, with diplomatic relations with all the members of the UN, no weapons of mass destruction, nor enemies. We have what it takes to be a new kind of permanent member, embodying the UN Charter’s ideals of peace and development, based on our increasingly creative and active participation in the multilateral system.
CC: What does this responsibility mean in practice, and what effects might it have on the lives of ordinary people?
AP: The construction of an international order which is fairer, more democratic and less prone to conflicts provides a basis for countries to be more open, for borders to become more fluid, for more trade and increased educational and technological exchanges – meaning that everyone gains.
[…]
CC: Do you have a sense of how Brazil will be seen, internationally, in the future? Do you think there’ll still be the same stereotypes or will that also change?
AP: The image being projected must be well grounded in reality. If we do our homework and we can provide a decent quality of life for all segments of society, we’ll be seen, yes, as a democratic, fair and increasingly prosperous country. In the area of foreign policy, for example, if we are consistent and generous partners, we’ll be dealing with good neighbors and good friends, in all parts of the world. We should worry about what we are before we worry about how we look.
The stereotypes normally associated with Brazil – samba, carnival and football – remain present in Brazilian life and also serve to generate positive images, linked to the idea of creativity, talent and quality of life. Brazil’s image abroad is on an upward curve, reflecting the transformations the country’s experienced, and in 18 years it will have changed to reflect the dynamism of that present moment. We shouldn’t only be concerned about how the rich countries see us. In neighbouring countries, in Africa and in the developing world we’re increasingly conscious of the importance of fulfilling the rising expectations of Brazil in terms of solidarity, leadership, and commitment to development.
CC: In future, what do think are the Brazilian assets that will arouse the most interest from the rest of the world? Will it just be natural resources or also other kinds of assets, such as, for example, our culture?
Brazil has many assets with great potential to become more highly valued in future. We can lead, for example, in various fields: social inclusion, energy efficiency, technology applied to agriculture, and sustainable development. Perhaps an important asset is our credentials as a country that’s peaceful, supportive, and capable of talking to all other countries, allied with the intent to participate constructively in the world. Our humanist vocation, our appreciation of diversity, our commitment to an increasingly inclusive, democratic and efficient global governance system.
[…]
CartaCapital: To what extent can we predict what Brazil will be like in 2030? Does the current situation allow us to foresee some of the characteristics of the nation 18 years from now?
Antonio Patriota: I remember the words of President Dilma Rousseff in a speech she made in April this year at the graduation ceremony for the latest group of young diplomats. She said, “The position a country occupies in the world is linked, first and foremost, to the role it plays in relation to its own people.” I think that in this respect Brazil is becoming ever more capable. It is systematically implementing the required policies – whether those aimed at economic growth or those that have allowed millions of Brazilians to achieve a more dignified standard of living. It is these internal measures that will allow us to act in the international arena and pursue our aims, which are sustainable development, cooperation and peace. Brazil’s in an extraordinarily good position with regard to some key factors: territory, population, natural resources, food production, access to energy, biodiversity. Predicting what Brazil will be like in 2030 is a speculative exercise. We can, however, make use of papers written by academic institutions and private consultancies and try to visualise the general contours of the scenario that awaits us 18 years from now.
CC: Will we be among the four or five biggest economies?
AP: The next two decades will consolidate the change taking place around the world – particularly the redistribution of economic wealth, with the possibility of substantial improvements in the living standards of large segments of the world population. By 2030 China and India might account for 40% of global GDP, and the BRICS should also see a significant increase in their share of global income. The Economist Intelligence Unit predicts that by 2030 Brazil’s GDP will have reached 7.34 trillion dollars, which would make it the fourth biggest economy behind China, the US and India, in that order, and ahead of Japan, Germany, Russia, France and the UK.
According to the International Energy Agency, thanks to the discovery of the pre-salt oil reserves Brazil will become the sixth biggest [oil] producer by 2030, with 3.4 million barrels a day, behind Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Iran and Canada. According to the agency, between now and 2030 Brazil’s oil production is expected to increase by 2.9% a year – more quickly than that of any other country apart from Iraq and Canada. But, however good the scenario, it’s essential that we continue to invest in human capital, in science, technology and innovation and infrastructure. For example, if the GDP growth forecast is to be proved right, Brazil needs to grow at an average rate of 3.9% per year between 2011 and 2030, which means there’ll have to be a bigger portion of investment – public and private, domestic and foreign – in the composition of our GDP.
CC: Do you think we will have a seat on the UN Security Council? Should Brazil really be a country with greater international responsibilities?
AP: We’re working on it. There’s a democratic deficit in the composition of the UN Security Council, which has had the same five permanent members since the Second World War. The world has evolved and it’s unacceptable to have this anachronistic situation in which whole regions of the world are left out of the part of the system where the decisions are made. Latin America and Africa in particular, along with other centres of influence, should therefore be represented permanently. That’s the goal of the G4, which consists of Brazil, India, Germany and Japan, on the understanding that Africa must also be represented permanently in an extended Security Council. The last few years have shown that there’s no substitute for the multilateral system and it’s essential to update it. The reform of the Security Council is one of the major tasks we hope to see carried out as quickly as possible. A permanent seat for Brazil in a reformed Council would be a natural consequence of a composition that mirrors the new geography of power in the world. More than a mere aspiration, Brazil's participation would be a welcome responsibility. Actually, we’ve been taking on increased responsibilities, as shown by our performance at the head of the Stabilization Mission in Haiti, our growing role as a source of humanitarian aid – among developing countries we’re the biggest contributor to the World Food Programme. We are, visibly, a force for peace, with diplomatic relations with all the members of the UN, no weapons of mass destruction, nor enemies. We have what it takes to be a new kind of permanent member, embodying the UN Charter’s ideals of peace and development, based on our increasingly creative and active participation in the multilateral system.
CC: What does this responsibility mean in practice, and what effects might it have on the lives of ordinary people?
AP: The construction of an international order which is fairer, more democratic and less prone to conflicts provides a basis for countries to be more open, for borders to become more fluid, for more trade and increased educational and technological exchanges – meaning that everyone gains.
[…]
CC: Do you have a sense of how Brazil will be seen, internationally, in the future? Do you think there’ll still be the same stereotypes or will that also change?
AP: The image being projected must be well grounded in reality. If we do our homework and we can provide a decent quality of life for all segments of society, we’ll be seen, yes, as a democratic, fair and increasingly prosperous country. In the area of foreign policy, for example, if we are consistent and generous partners, we’ll be dealing with good neighbors and good friends, in all parts of the world. We should worry about what we are before we worry about how we look.
The stereotypes normally associated with Brazil – samba, carnival and football – remain present in Brazilian life and also serve to generate positive images, linked to the idea of creativity, talent and quality of life. Brazil’s image abroad is on an upward curve, reflecting the transformations the country’s experienced, and in 18 years it will have changed to reflect the dynamism of that present moment. We shouldn’t only be concerned about how the rich countries see us. In neighbouring countries, in Africa and in the developing world we’re increasingly conscious of the importance of fulfilling the rising expectations of Brazil in terms of solidarity, leadership, and commitment to development.
CC: In future, what do think are the Brazilian assets that will arouse the most interest from the rest of the world? Will it just be natural resources or also other kinds of assets, such as, for example, our culture?
Brazil has many assets with great potential to become more highly valued in future. We can lead, for example, in various fields: social inclusion, energy efficiency, technology applied to agriculture, and sustainable development. Perhaps an important asset is our credentials as a country that’s peaceful, supportive, and capable of talking to all other countries, allied with the intent to participate constructively in the world. Our humanist vocation, our appreciation of diversity, our commitment to an increasingly inclusive, democratic and efficient global governance system.
[…]